Rockies at Mets
Last play · Brenton Doyle called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mets100%
COL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 3 – 4 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-2.5
Moneyline
reference+330 / -425
Mets favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Alonso homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Starling Marte scores. Juan Soto scores. (inning 4) — +38% Mets
8Juan Soto homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field.3–5
5Francisco Lindor homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.3–4
5Tyler Freeman homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Keston Hiura scores.3–3
4Pete Alonso homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Starling Marte scores. Juan Soto scores.1–3
3Orlando Arcia homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
