Pirates at Padres
Last play · Oneil Cruz called out on strikes.
Win probability
Padres100%
PIT 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 1 SD
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Padres favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew McCutchen homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Oneil Cruz scores. (inning 3) — -24% Pirates
7Tyler Wade singles on a ground ball to pitcher Caleb Ferguson. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Luis Arraez to 3rd. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.4–6
7Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Elias Díaz scores.4–5
7Luis Arraez singles on a line drive to left fielder Tommy Pham. Jose Iglesias scores. Elias Díaz to 3rd. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 2nd.4–4
7Elias Díaz singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Xander Bogaerts scores. Jose Iglesias to 2nd.4–3
6Jackson Merrill doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Luis Arraez scores.4–2
4Adam Frazier homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–1
3Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Spencer Horwitz scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes out at 2nd on the throw, center fielder Jackson Merrill to third baseman Manny Machado to first baseman Luis Arraez.3–1
3Andrew McCutchen homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. Oneil Cruz scores.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
