Astros at Pirates
Last play · Jake Meyers lines out sharply to center fielder Oneil Cruz.
Win probability
Pirates100%
HOU 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 3 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Pirates favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker. Tommy Pham scores. (inning 2) — +10% Pirates
3Adam Frazier grounds into a double play, second baseman Jose Altuve to shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker. Spencer Horwitz scores. Ke'Bryan Hayes out at 2nd. Adam Frazier out at 1st.0–3
2Andrew McCutchen out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jacob Melton. Endy Rodríguez scores.0–2
2Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker. Tommy Pham scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
