Padres at Giants
Last play · Jake Cronenworth strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Giants100%
SD 0%SF 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 2 – 3 SF
Giants led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Giants favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Manny Machado homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores. (inning 3) — -26% Padres
3Dominic Smith hits a ground-rule double (1) on a fly ball to right-center field. Jung Hoo Lee scores. Matt Chapman scores.2–3
3Willy Adames out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Heliot Ramos scores. Jung Hoo Lee to 3rd.2–1
3Manny Machado homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. Luis Arraez scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
