Astros at Pirates
Last play · Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounds out, shortstop Jeremy Peña to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Pirates0%
HOU 100%PIT 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 2 PIT
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 6.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
Pirates favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jacob Melton singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Jake Meyers scores. Cam Smith scores. (inning 4) — -20% Astros
9Isaac Paredes homers (14) on a fly ball to left field. Jeremy Peña scores.8–2
7Jose Altuve out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Jeremy Peña scores.6–2
7Jeremy Peña doubles (12) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Jacob Melton scores.5–2
5Oneil Cruz singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Jared Triolo scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd.4–2
4Jacob Melton singles on a ground ball to left fielder Tommy Pham. Jake Meyers scores. Cam Smith scores.4–1
4Cam Smith singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Christian Walker scores. Jake Meyers to 3rd.2–1
4Isaac Paredes homers (13) on a fly ball to left field.1–1
3Oneil Cruz grounds out, second baseman Mauricio Dubón to first baseman Christian Walker. Jared Triolo scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
