Phillies at Pirates
Last play · Nick Gonzales out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Max Kepler. Adam Frazier scores.
Win probability
Pirates100%
PHI 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 4 – 4 PIT
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Pirates favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Henry Davis homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Alexander Canario scores. (inning 4) — +27% Pirates
9Nick Gonzales out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Max Kepler. Adam Frazier scores.4–5
4Henry Davis homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Alexander Canario scores.4–4
4Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to center fielder Oneil Cruz. J.T. Realmuto scores. Edmundo Sosa scores. Bryson Stott to 2nd.4–2
3Bryan Reynolds homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
3Alec Bohm singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alexander Canario. Trea Turner scores.2–1
1Bryan Reynolds singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Nick Gonzales scores.1–1
1Nick Castellanos grounds out, shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Trea Turner scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
