Astros at Guardians
Last play · Jacob Melton grounds out softly to first baseman Carlos Santana.
Win probability
Guardians100%
HOU 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 2 CLE
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Guardians favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cam Smith doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Yainer Diaz scores. Jake Meyers scores. (inning 7) — -36% Astros
7Steven Kwan out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Meyers. Bo Naylor scores.2–4
7Will Wilson hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by pitcher Steven Okert. Nolan Jones scores. Bo Naylor to 3rd. Will Wilson to 2nd.2–3
7Cam Smith doubles (9) on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Yainer Diaz scores. Jake Meyers scores.2–2
2Bo Naylor homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Gabriel Arias scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
