Blue Jays at Twins
Last play · Alan Roden grounds out to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Twins100%
TOR 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 3 – 6 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+145 / -175
Twins favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 4) — +20% Twins
5Byron Buxton walks. Willi Castro scores. Ty France to 3rd. Brooks Lee to 2nd.3–6
5Ty France doubles (11) on a line drive to right fielder Nathan Lukes. Royce Lewis scores. Willi Castro to 3rd.3–5
4Christian Vázquez homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.3–4
4Brooks Lee homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.3–3
3George Springer doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Willi Castro. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores. Alejandro Kirk to 3rd.3–2
3Alejandro Kirk singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Willi Castro. Bo Bichette scores. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to 3rd.2–2
2Trevor Larnach out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Myles Straw. Ty France scores.1–2
2Christian Vázquez grounds out, second baseman Ernie Clement to first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Willi Castro scores. Ty France to 3rd. Brooks Lee to 2nd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
