Cubs at Phillies
Last play · Kyle Schwarber flies out to left fielder Ian Happ.
Win probability
Phillies0%
CHC 100%PHI 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 3 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Phillies favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ian Happ homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Reese McGuire scores. (inning 6) — -31% Cubs
8Seiya Suzuki singles on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Max Kepler. Ian Happ scores. Kyle Tucker to 2nd.8–4
8Kyle Tucker singles on a ground ball to right fielder Nick Castellanos. Reese McGuire scores. Ian Happ to 2nd.7–4
8Reese McGuire doubles (1) on a fly ball to center fielder Johan Rojas. Nico Hoerner scores.6–4
6Ian Happ homers (7) on a fly ball to right field. Reese McGuire scores.5–4
5Alec Bohm singles on a line drive to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Brandon Marsh scores. Trea Turner scores. Alec Bohm to 2nd.3–4
4Michael Busch homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.3–2
3Ian Happ homers (6) on a fly ball to right field.2–2
2Max Kepler homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. J.T. Realmuto scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
