Rays at Red Sox
Last play · Josh Lowe strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Red Sox100%
TB 0%BOS 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 4 BOS
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+105 / -125
Red Sox favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yandy Díaz homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 5) — -25% Rays
5Abraham Toro homers (5) on a fly ball to center field.3–4
5Yandy Díaz homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Brandon Lowe scores.3–3
4Marcelo Mayer homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
2Marcelo Mayer homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–2
2Josh Lowe grounds into a force out, shortstop Trevor Story to second baseman Kristian Campbell. Jake Mangum scores. Matt Thaiss to 3rd. Kameron Misner out at 2nd. Josh Lowe to 1st.1–1
1Jarren Duran homers (5) on a fly ball to right center field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
