Marlins at Pirates
Last play · Xavier Edwards strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
MIA 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 4 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+135 / -160
Pirates favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Andrew McCutchen homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Oneil Cruz scores. (inning 5) — +20% Pirates
8Adam Frazier out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Jesús Sánchez. Bryan Reynolds scores.2–5
6Jesús Sánchez grounds out to first baseman Spencer Horwitz. Eric Wagaman scores. Connor Norby to 2nd.2–4
6Heriberto Hernández homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
5Andrew McCutchen homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores. Oneil Cruz scores.0–4
2Isiah Kiner-Falefa walks. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 3rd. Ke'Bryan Hayes steals (8) 3rd base. Ke'Bryan Hayes to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
