Pirates at Cubs
Last play · Tommy Pham grounds out, second baseman Nico Hoerner to first baseman Michael Busch.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PIT 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 0 – 2 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
6.5
opened 6.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -115
Cubs favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Kyle Tucker scores. (inning 4) — +22% Cubs
7Jared Triolo walks. Adam Frazier scores. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 3rd. Brett Sullivan to 2nd.2–3
7Adam Frazier singles on a line drive to left fielder Ian Happ. Spencer Horwitz scores.1–3
6Seiya Suzuki homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.0–3
4Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field. Kyle Tucker scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
