Rays at Mets
Last play · Ronny Mauricio called out on strikes.
Win probability
Mets0%
TB 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 5 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
Mets favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Danny Jansen homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Kameron Misner scores. (inning 6) — -28% Rays
6Danny Jansen homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Kameron Misner scores.7–5
6Kameron Misner singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Jake Mangum scores.5–5
6José Caballero grounds out softly, shortstop Francisco Lindor to first baseman Pete Alonso. Jonathan Aranda scores. Jake Mangum to 2nd.4–5
6Jake Mangum singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Tyrone Taylor. Brandon Lowe scores. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 3rd.3–5
5Starling Marte singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Francisco Lindor scores. Brandon Nimmo scores. Juan Soto to 3rd. Starling Marte to 2nd.1–5
5Juan Soto walks. Francisco Alvarez scores. Francisco Lindor to 3rd. Brandon Nimmo to 2nd.1–3
4Tyrone Taylor grounds into a force out, shortstop José Caballero to second baseman Brandon Lowe. Pete Alonso scores. Jeff McNeil to 3rd. Starling Marte out at 2nd. Tyrone Taylor to 1st.1–2
4Starling Marte singles on a line drive to shortstop José Caballero, deflected by pitcher Taj Bradley. Juan Soto scores. Pete Alonso to 3rd. Jeff McNeil to 2nd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
