Padres at D-backs
Last play · Xander Bogaerts flies out to right fielder Corbin Carroll.
Win probability
D-backs100%
SD 0%AZ 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 5 AZ
D-backs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+140 / -165
D-backs favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Josh Naylor homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — +20% D-backs
5Lourdes Gurriel Jr. singles on a line drive to left fielder Tyler Wade. Geraldo Perdomo scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd.1–5
5Josh Naylor out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Ketel Marte scores.1–4
5Corbin Carroll homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.1–3
3Geraldo Perdomo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Corbin Carroll scores. Ketel Marte to 3rd.1–2
2Josh Naylor homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
1Luis Arraez lines out to center fielder Alek Thomas. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Throwing error by center fielder Alek Thomas.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
