Rays at Mets
Last play · Francisco Lindor grounds out, shortstop Taylor Walls to first baseman Yandy Díaz.
Win probability
Mets0%
TB 100%NYM 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 7 – 4 NYM
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 46.9% · hold 6.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -140
Mets favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Baty homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 3) — +19% Mets
6Yandy Díaz triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Brandon Lowe scores.8–4
5Brandon Nimmo singles on a ground ball to right fielder Josh Lowe. Francisco Lindor scores.7–4
5Ronny Mauricio homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.7–3
5Taylor Walls doubles (6) on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Matt Thaiss scores.7–2
4Junior Caminero walks.6–2
4Yandy Díaz singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Taylor Walls scores. Brandon Lowe to 2nd.5–2
4Brandon Lowe singles on a fly ball to right fielder Juan Soto. Matt Thaiss scores. Taylor Walls to 3rd.4–2
4Taylor Walls hits a sacrifice bunt. Fielding error by pitcher Tylor Megill. Jake Mangum scores. Matt Thaiss to 2nd. Taylor Walls to 1st.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
