Pirates at Cubs
Last play · Ke'Bryan Hayes strikes out on a foul tip.
Win probability
Cubs100%
PIT 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 1 – 1 CHC
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 5.5 ↑
fair over 46.9% · hold 6.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+180 / -250
Cubs favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dansby Swanson homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 6) — +19% Cubs
6Dansby Swanson homers (13) on a fly ball to left center field.1–2
3Ian Happ out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Tommy Pham. Nico Hoerner scores.1–1
1Andrew McCutchen homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
