Twins at Reds
Last play · Christian Vázquez strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
MIN 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 4 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Reds favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Harrison Bader homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Brooks Lee scores. Trevor Larnach scores. (inning 6) — -45% Twins
6TJ Friedl doubles (12) on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Jake Fraley scores. Matt McLain scores.5–6
6Harrison Bader homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Brooks Lee scores. Trevor Larnach scores.5–4
6Trevor Larnach singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jake Fraley. Ty France scores. Brooks Lee to 3rd.2–4
4Jake Fraley singles on a line drive to right fielder Willi Castro. Will Benson scores. Spencer Steer scores.1–4
4Will Benson doubles (5) on a line drive to left fielder Harrison Bader. Elly De La Cruz scores. Tyler Stephenson scores.1–2
3Byron Buxton homers (12) on a fly ball to center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
