Padres at Dodgers
Last play · Will Smith homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.
Win probability
Dodgers100%
SD 0%LAD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 3 LAD
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+225 / -275
Dodgers favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Xander Bogaerts doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Manny Machado scores. Brandon Lockridge to 3rd. (inning 9) — -38% Padres
9Will Smith homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.3–4
9Xander Bogaerts doubles (13) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Andy Pages. Manny Machado scores. Brandon Lockridge to 3rd.3–3
9Jake Cronenworth out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Andy Pages. Luis Arraez scores.2–3
5Dalton Rushing singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Tommy Edman scores. Hyeseong Kim scores.1–3
5Andy Pages out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Bryce Johnson. Max Muncy scores.1–1
2Elias Díaz singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Teoscar Hernández, deflected by second baseman Tommy Edman. Jake Cronenworth scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
