Braves at Marlins
Last play · Sean Murphy strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Marlins100%
ATL 0%MIA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 2 – 4 MIA
Marlins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-160 / +135
Marlins favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kyle Stowers homers (11) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 2) — +20% Marlins
6Xavier Edwards singles on a fly ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Nick Fortes scores.3–5
6Alex Verdugo grounds into a force out, first baseman Eric Wagaman to shortstop Otto Lopez. Drake Baldwin scores. Ozzie Albies out at 2nd. Alex Verdugo to 1st.3–4
5Dane Myers singles on a line drive to left fielder Alex Verdugo. Otto Lopez scores. Eric Wagaman to 3rd.2–4
5Otto Lopez singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Jesús Sánchez scores.2–3
3Otto Lopez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Michael Harris II. Xavier Edwards scores.2–2
3Drake Baldwin singles on a ground ball to center fielder Dane Myers. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores. Matt Olson to 3rd.2–1
2Kyle Stowers homers (11) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
1Austin Riley singles on a ground ball to left fielder Kyle Stowers. Ronald Acuña Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
