Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Justin Turner grounds into a force out, shortstop Masyn Winn to second baseman Brendan Donovan. Carson Kelly out at 2nd.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CHC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 6 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Lars Nootbaar homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Willson Contreras scores. (inning 4) — +22% Cardinals
7Justin Turner out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.2–8
6Nolan Gorman homers (5) on a fly ball to center field. Nolan Arenado scores.1–8
5Alec Burleson homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Masyn Winn scores.1–6
5Brendan Donovan homers (5) on a line drive to right field. Pedro Pagés scores.1–4
5Carson Kelly singles on a line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–2
4Lars Nootbaar homers (10) on a fly ball to right field. Willson Contreras scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
