Mariners @ Twins — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

SEA6–

MIN5

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H	E
SEA	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	7	0
MIN	0	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	5	8	1

Last play · Harrison Bader grounds out, pitcher Matt Brash to first baseman Donovan Solano.

Win probability

Twins0%

SEA 100%MIN 0%

First 5 (F5)

final

SEA 5 – 5 MIN

Tied through 5

Total runs

8.5

opened 8.5

fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%

Run line

+1.5

Moneyline

reference

-105 / -115

Twins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓

Biggest swing · Julio Rodríguez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Matt Wallner. Dylan Moore scores. Cole Young to 3rd. (inning 9) — -33% Mariners

9Julio Rodríguez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Matt Wallner. Dylan Moore scores. Cole Young to 3rd.6–5

4Ryan Jeffers doubles (15) on a line drive to left fielder Luke Raley. Carlos Correa scores. Kody Clemens scores.5–5

4Ty France grounds into a double play, second baseman Cole Young to shortstop J.P. Crawford to first baseman Donovan Solano. Brooks Lee scores. Carlos Correa to 3rd. Matt Wallner out at 2nd. Ty France out at 1st.5–3

4Brooks Lee singles on a line drive to left fielder Luke Raley. Trevor Larnach scores.5–2

3Kody Clemens homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.5–1

3Donovan Solano singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Cal Raleigh scores. Randy Arozarena scores. Luke Raley to 2nd.5–0

3Luke Raley hit by pitch. J.P. Crawford scores. Cal Raleigh to 3rd. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.3–0

3Cal Raleigh singles on a line drive to right fielder Matt Wallner. Cole Young scores. J.P. Crawford to 2nd.2–0

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Mariners at Twins