Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Dansby Swanson grounds out, third baseman Nolan Arenado to first baseman Willson Contreras.
Win probability
Cardinals100%
CHC 0%STL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 5 – 8 STL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Seiya Suzuki homers (21) on a line drive to left center field. Ian Happ scores. Kyle Tucker scores. (inning 3) — -35% Cubs
6Nico Hoerner homers (1) on a fly ball to left field. Dansby Swanson scores.7–8
4Alec Burleson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Masyn Winn scores.5–8
4Masyn Winn doubles (14) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Seiya Suzuki. Pedro Pagés scores. Victor Scott II scores.5–7
4Nolan Gorman homers (6) on a fly ball to center field.5–5
3Masyn Winn homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Brendan Donovan scores.5–4
3Seiya Suzuki homers (21) on a line drive to left center field. Ian Happ scores. Kyle Tucker scores.5–2
3Kyle Tucker singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Nico Hoerner scores. Matt Shaw scores. Ian Happ to 3rd.2–2
2Lars Nootbaar homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Willson Contreras scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
