Braves at Mets
Last play · Marcell Ozuna grounds into a force out, shortstop Francisco Lindor to second baseman Ronny Mauricio. Matt Olson out at 2nd.
Win probability
Mets100%
ATL 0%NYM 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATL 1 – 6 NYM
Mets led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Mets favored ↑50%Braves favored ↓
Biggest swing · Juan Soto homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. (inning 4) — +19% Mets
9Ronald Acuña Jr. singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Ozzie Albies scores. Alex Verdugo scores.3–7
7Juan Soto homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.1–7
4Brandon Nimmo singles on a ground ball to center fielder Michael Harris II. Ronny Mauricio scores. Hayden Senger to 2nd.1–6
4Francisco Lindor out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Alex Verdugo. Brett Baty scores. Throwing error by left fielder Alex Verdugo.1–5
4Brett Baty singles on a ground ball to right fielder Ronald Acuña Jr. Jeff McNeil scores.1–4
4Starling Marte out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Michael Harris II. Pete Alonso scores. Jeff McNeil to 3rd.1–3
4Juan Soto homers (18) on a fly ball to center field.1–2
4Drake Baldwin homers (9) on a fly ball to center field.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
