Rays at Royals
Last play · Jac Caglianone grounds out, first baseman Jonathan Aranda to pitcher Pete Fairbanks.
Win probability
Royals0%
TB 100%KC 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 0 KC
Rays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +105
Royals favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Danny Jansen out on a sacrifice bunt to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. José Caballero scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd. (inning 2) — -18% Rays
2Danny Jansen out on a sacrifice bunt to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. José Caballero scores. Chandler Simpson to 3rd.3–0
2José Caballero singles on a bunt ground ball to first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino. Christopher Morel scores. Josh Lowe to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
