Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Pedro Pagés grounds out, first baseman Michael Busch to pitcher Porter Hodge.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CHC 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 8 – 0 STL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-160 / +135
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Reese McGuire homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Busch scores. (inning 2) — -15% Cubs
5Matt Shaw grounds into a force out, shortstop Masyn Winn to second baseman Thomas Saggese. Dansby Swanson scores. Michael Busch to 3rd. Nico Hoerner out at 2nd. Matt Shaw to 1st.8–0
4Ian Happ singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Alec Burleson. Michael Busch scores. Matt Shaw scores.7–0
3Kyle Tucker homers (16) on a fly ball to right center field.5–0
2Reese McGuire homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Busch scores.4–0
2Michael Busch singles on a line drive to center fielder Garrett Hampson. Dansby Swanson scores.2–0
1Ian Happ homers (12) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
