Mariners at Twins
Last play · Cole Young grounds out to pitcher Cole Sands.
Win probability
Twins100%
SEA 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 0 – 2 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+110 / -130
Twins favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Larnach homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Byron Buxton scores. (inning 5) — +25% Twins
9Miles Mastrobuoni singles on a ground ball to shortstop Brooks Lee, deflected by second baseman Kody Clemens. Dominic Canzone scores. Donovan Solano to 3rd.1–10
6Matt Wallner homers (7) on a fly ball to center field. Carlos Correa scores.0–10
6Carlos Correa singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Trevor Larnach scores. Willi Castro scores.0–8
6Willi Castro doubles (12) on a fly ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach to 3rd.0–6
6Trevor Larnach reaches on a throwing error by third baseman Ben Williamson. Kody Clemens scores. Byron Buxton to 3rd.0–5
6Byron Buxton doubles (10) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Ryan Jeffers scores. Kody Clemens to 3rd.0–4
6Brooks Lee homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.0–3
5Trevor Larnach homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Byron Buxton scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
