Phillies at Astros
Last play · Nick Castellanos strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
PHI 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 0 – 1 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Astros favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cam Smith singles on a line drive to left fielder Max Kepler. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd. (inning 8) — +29% Astros
8Cam Smith singles on a line drive to left fielder Max Kepler. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd.1–2
8Brandon Marsh out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Cam Smith. Bryson Stott scores.1–1
2Yainer Diaz singles on a line drive to center fielder Brandon Marsh. Jake Meyers scores. Cam Smith to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
