Cubs at Cardinals
Last play · Nolan Gorman called out on strikes.
Win probability
Cardinals0%
CHC 100%STL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 2 – 0 STL
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Cardinals favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 2) — -15% Cubs
8Carson Kelly lines out to left fielder Brendan Donovan.3–0
4Ian Happ walks. Michael Busch scores. Carson Kelly to 3rd. Nico Hoerner to 2nd.2–0
2Michael Busch homers (13) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
