Padres at Reds
Last play · Gavin Sheets strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds100%
SD 0%CIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 8 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-135 / +115
Reds favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Steer homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 4) — +10% Reds
9Bryce Johnson walks. Trenton Brooks scores. Elias Díaz to 3rd. Jackson Merrill to 2nd.1–8
5Spencer Steer homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Gavin Lux scores.0–8
5Gavin Lux singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Austin Hays scores.0–6
5Austin Hays doubles (7) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Elly De La Cruz scores.0–5
4Spencer Steer homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.0–4
2Spencer Steer homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field.0–3
1Austin Hays strikes out swinging.0–2
1Elly De La Cruz grounds out, shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Luis Arraez. TJ Friedl scores. Matt McLain to 3rd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
