Cubs at Astros
Last play · Ian Happ lines out sharply to center fielder Jake Meyers.
Win probability
Astros100%
CHC 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 1 – 7 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Astros favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yainer Diaz homers (10) on a line drive to left center field. Cam Smith scores. Jake Meyers scores. (inning 3) — +22% Astros
9Matt Shaw doubles (11) on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Carson Kelly scores.4–7
7Matt Shaw doubles (10) on a ground ball to left fielder Taylor Trammell. Carson Kelly scores. Nico Hoerner scores.3–7
5Nico Hoerner homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.1–7
4Cam Smith homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve scores.0–7
3Yainer Diaz homers (10) on a line drive to left center field. Cam Smith scores. Jake Meyers scores.0–4
3Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. Jose Altuve scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
