Rays at Orioles
Last play · Jackson Holliday strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
TB 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 9 – 1 BAL
Rays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Orioles favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan Aranda homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Lowe scores. (inning 1) — -16% Rays
9Ramón Laureano homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Coby Mayo scores.11–3
7Matt Thaiss triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Jake Mangum scores. Taylor Walls scores.11–1
5Chadwick Tromp homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.9–1
5Taylor Walls out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Colton Cowser. Junior Caminero scores.9–0
4Yandy Díaz homers (13) on a fly ball to center field. Josh Lowe scores. Brandon Lowe scores.8–0
4Taylor Walls out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Chandler Simpson scores.5–0
1Chandler Simpson grounds into a force out, first baseman Ryan O'Hearn to shortstop Gunnar Henderson. Junior Caminero scores. Jake Mangum out at 2nd. Chandler Simpson to 1st.4–0
1Jonathan Aranda homers (10) on a fly ball to right center field. Brandon Lowe scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
