Padres at Reds
Last play · Spencer Steer strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Reds0%
SD 100%CIN 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 1 – 4 CIN
Reds led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Reds favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Gavin Sheets homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Jackson Merrill scores. Xander Bogaerts scores. (inning 7) — -53% Padres
7Gavin Sheets homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Jackson Merrill scores. Xander Bogaerts scores.6–4
6Jake Cronenworth homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Jose Iglesias scores.3–4
5Tyler Stephenson out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Spencer Steer scores. Gavin Lux to 3rd.1–4
5Luis Arraez homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–3
2Matt McLain singles on a fly ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Santiago Espinal scores. TJ Friedl to 2nd.0–3
2TJ Friedl singles on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Rece Hinds scores. Santiago Espinal to 3rd.0–2
1Gavin Lux singles on a line drive to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Matt McLain scores. Spencer Steer to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
