Cubs at Astros
Last play · Victor Caratini called out on strikes.
Win probability
Astros0%
CHC 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCHC 8 – 2 HOU
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Astros favored ↑50%Cubs favored ↓
Biggest swing · Cam Smith homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake Meyers scores. (inning 3) — +25% Astros
8Isaac Paredes homers (17) on a fly ball to left field.12–3
8Michael Busch singles on a fly ball to left fielder Cooper Hummel. Vidal Bruján scores.12–2
8Seiya Suzuki homers (22) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Tucker scores.11–2
6Dansby Swanson singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Cooper Hummel. Kyle Tucker scores.9–2
4Pete Crow-Armstrong out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Jake Meyers. Seiya Suzuki scores.8–2
4Kyle Tucker homers (17) on a line drive to right field. Reese McGuire scores. Ian Happ scores.7–2
4Ian Happ singles on a ground ball to right fielder Cam Smith. Matt Shaw scores. Reese McGuire to 3rd.4–2
4Nico Hoerner homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
