Mets at Pirates
Last play · Brett Baty strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Pirates100%
NYM 0%PIT 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYM 1 – 8 PIT
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9.5
fair over 45.7% · hold 4.1%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-145 / +120
Pirates favored ↑50%Mets favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ke'Bryan Hayes singles on a line drive to center fielder Jeff McNeil. Andrew McCutchen scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. (inning 1) — +17% Pirates
8Spencer Horwitz out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Jeff McNeil. Adam Frazier scores.1–12
8Alexander Canario walks. Henry Davis scores. Adam Frazier to 3rd. Andrew McCutchen to 2nd.1–11
7Oneil Cruz homers (15) on a fly ball to right field. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.1–10
5Tommy Pham singles on a ground ball to left fielder Brandon Nimmo. Ke'Bryan Hayes scores.1–8
5Bryan Reynolds homers (10) on a line drive to center field.1–7
5Luis Torrens homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.1–6
2Andrew McCutchen out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Brandon Nimmo in foul territory. Henry Davis scores.0–6
1Tommy Pham homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
