Padres at Phillies
Last play · Jake Cronenworth flies out to center fielder Brandon Marsh.
Win probability
Phillies100%
SD 0%PHI 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 0 – 4 PHI
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+210 / -255
Phillies favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryson Stott grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Luis Arraez. Max Kepler scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd. (inning 2) — +10% Phillies
5Nick Castellanos homers (10) on a fly ball to left field.0–4
4Trea Turner singles on a ground ball to third baseman Manny Machado. Brandon Marsh scores.0–3
4Brandon Marsh singles on a ground ball to first baseman Luis Arraez. Bryson Stott scores.0–2
2Bryson Stott grounds out, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to first baseman Luis Arraez. Max Kepler scores. J.T. Realmuto to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
