Mariners @ Rangers — Live Pitcher Fatigue & Win Probability

SEA6–

TEX4

Final

Inn	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H	E
SEA	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	3	6	13	0
TEX	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	4	9	1

Last play · Marcus Semien pops out to shortstop J.P. Crawford.

Win probability

Rangers0%

SEA 100%TEX 0%

First 5 (F5)

final

SEA 0 – 1 TEX

Rangers led after 5

Total runs

8.5

opened 8.5

fair over 49% · hold 6.9%

Run line

+1.5

Moneyline

reference

-125 / -105

Rangers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓

Biggest swing · Corey Seager homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Higashioka scores. (inning 10) — +62% Rangers

12Corey Seager out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Kyle Higashioka scores.6–4

12Mitch Garver homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field. Randy Arozarena scores.6–3

12Donovan Solano grounds out softly, third baseman Josh Jung to first baseman Josh Smith. Luke Raley scores. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.4–3

10Corey Seager homers (10) on a fly ball to left center field. Kyle Higashioka scores.3–3

10Mitch Garver singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Randy Arozarena scores. Donovan Solano to 3rd. Mitch Garver to 2nd.3–1

10Donovan Solano singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Julio Rodríguez scores. Cal Raleigh out at home on the throw, left fielder Alejandro Osuna to catcher Jonah Heim. Randy Arozarena to 2nd.2–1

6Mitch Garver singles on a line drive to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Randy Arozarena scores.1–1

2Josh Jung singles on a line drive to right fielder Dominic Canzone. Evan Carter scores.0–1

Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.

Line score

The book's line

Win probability timeline

Scoring plays

Mariners at Rangers