Royals at Mariners
Last play · Jac Caglianone lines out to center fielder Julio Rodríguez.
Win probability
Mariners100%
KC 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 5 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Mariners favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Randy Arozarena homers (10) on a line drive to center field. J.P. Crawford scores. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 5) — +20% Mariners
8Bobby Witt Jr. grounds into a force out, shortstop J.P. Crawford to second baseman Cole Young. John Rave scores. Kyle Isbel to 3rd. Jonathan India out at 2nd. Bobby Witt Jr. to 1st.2–6
7Cal Raleigh homers (33) on a fly ball to center field.1–6
5Randy Arozarena homers (10) on a line drive to center field. J.P. Crawford scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.1–5
5Cal Raleigh out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder John Rave. Cole Young scores. J.P. Crawford to 3rd.1–2
4Randy Arozarena homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
3Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a line drive to center fielder Julio Rodríguez, deflected by second baseman Cole Young. Kyle Isbel scores. Jonathan India to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
