Rays at Twins
Last play · Harrison Bader homers (9) on a line drive to left field.
Win probability
Twins100%
TB 0%MIN 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 0 – 1 MIN
Twins led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 9.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
Twins favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brooks Lee hit by pitch. Ty France scores. Byron Buxton to 3rd. Willi Castro to 2nd. (inning 7) — +23% Twins
9Harrison Bader homers (9) on a line drive to left field.3–4
7Brooks Lee hit by pitch. Ty France scores. Byron Buxton to 3rd. Willi Castro to 2nd.3–3
7Byron Buxton doubles (11) on a fly ball to left fielder Jake Mangum. Matt Wallner scores. Ty France to 3rd.3–2
7Josh Lowe singles on a ground ball to right fielder Trevor Larnach, deflected by second baseman Willi Castro. Chandler Simpson scores.3–1
6Junior Caminero singles on a line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Yandy Díaz scores.2–1
6Yandy Díaz doubles (17) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Byron Buxton. Josh Lowe scores.1–1
5Harrison Bader homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
