Cardinals at Cubs
Last play · Victor Scott II flies out to left fielder Vidal Bruján.
Win probability
Cubs100%
STL 0%CHC 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 1 – 8 CHC
Cubs led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 10.5 ↓
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -150
Cubs favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Busch homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 2) — +10% Cubs
9Pedro Pagés walks. Lars Nootbaar scores. Thomas Saggese to 3rd. Nolan Gorman to 2nd.3–11
9Lars Nootbaar singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Garrett Hampson scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd.2–11
7Michael Busch homers (17) on a fly ball to left center field.1–11
7Dansby Swanson homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–10
5Michael Busch singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Victor Scott II. Pete Crow-Armstrong scores.1–8
4Brendan Donovan homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.1–7
3Michael Busch homers (16) on a fly ball to right field. Dansby Swanson scores.0–7
3Pete Crow-Armstrong homers (23) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
