Rangers at Padres
Last play · Jake Cronenworth singles on a fly ball to right fielder Adolis García. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado to 3rd. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.
Win probability
Padres100%
TEX 0%SD 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 2 – 1 SD
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
Padres favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Marcus Semien doubles (11) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Josh Smith scores. Corey Seager scores. (inning 3) — -26% Rangers
10Jake Cronenworth singles on a fly ball to right fielder Adolis García. Jackson Merrill scores. Manny Machado to 3rd. Gavin Sheets to 2nd.2–3
6Luis Arraez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Alejandro Osuna. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Manny Machado to 2nd.2–2
4Manny Machado homers (14) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
3Marcus Semien doubles (11) on a line drive to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Josh Smith scores. Corey Seager scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
