Rangers at Padres
Last play · Xander Bogaerts grounds into a force out, fielded by third baseman Josh Smith. Jackson Merrill out at 3rd.
Win probability
Padres0%
TEX 100%SD 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 5 – 2 SD
Rangers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 51% · hold 6.9%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -130
Padres favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Cronenworth homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Jose Iglesias scores. (inning 2) — +25% Padres
8Kyle Higashioka singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jackson Merrill. Evan Carter scores. Jake Burger to 3rd.7–4
7Manny Machado out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Evan Carter. Trenton Brooks scores.6–4
7Jackson Merrill out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Adolis García. Jake Cronenworth scores. Trenton Brooks to 3rd.6–3
6Kyle Higashioka out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Wyatt Langford scores.6–2
4Kyle Higashioka singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Jonah Heim scores. Jake Burger to 2nd.5–2
4Jonah Heim doubles (8) on a line drive to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Wyatt Langford scores.4–2
3Kyle Higashioka homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Burger scores.3–2
2Jake Cronenworth homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field. Jose Iglesias scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
