Orioles at Braves
Last play · Michael Harris II grounds out, second baseman Jackson Holliday to first baseman Coby Mayo.
Win probability
Braves0%
BAL 100%ATL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 2 – 0 ATL
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 9.5 ↓
fair over 52% · hold 6.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+125 / -160
Braves favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jackson Holliday homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Coby Mayo scores. (inning 3) — -26% Orioles
9Sean Murphy homers (13) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
3Jackson Holliday homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Coby Mayo scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
