Astros at Orioles
Last play · Jeremy Peña called out on strikes.
Win probability
Orioles100%
HOU 0%BAL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 1 – 1 BAL
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 54.3% · hold 4.1%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+115 / -135
Orioles favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ryan Mountcastle singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Gunnar Henderson scores. (inning 6) — +20% Orioles
8Victor Caratini out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Carlos Correa scores.2–3
7Luis Vázquez homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–3
6Ryan Mountcastle singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Gunnar Henderson scores.1–2
3Jeremy Peña singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Cam Smith scores.1–1
1Gunnar Henderson homers (16) on a fly ball to right field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
