Twins at Blue Jays
Last play · Edouard Julien grounds out softly, pitcher Tommy Nance to first baseman Ty France.
Win probability
Blue Jays100%
MIN 0%TOR 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 1 – 6 TOR
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 53.2% · hold 4.3%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+120 / -145
Blue Jays favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Matt Wallner homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Trevor Larnach scores. (inning 6) — -12% Twins
6Vladimir Guerrero Jr. singles on a ground ball to right fielder Matt Wallner. Andrés Giménez scores. Nathan Lukes scores.4–10
6Nathan Lukes doubles (14) on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Alejandro Kirk scores. Ernie Clement scores. Andrés Giménez to 3rd.4–8
6Matt Wallner homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Trevor Larnach scores.4–6
6Brooks Lee grounds out, shortstop Bo Bichette to first baseman Ty France. Byron Buxton scores. Trevor Larnach to 2nd.2–6
4George Springer singles on a ground ball to center fielder Byron Buxton. Andrés Giménez scores.1–6
4Matt Wallner homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.1–5
2Andrés Giménez homers (6) on a fly ball to right center field.0–5
1Alejandro Kirk homers (11) on a fly ball to right center field. Bo Bichette scores.0–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
