Padres at Mariners
SD6–
SEA9Last play · Manny Machado strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Mariners100%
SD 0%SEA 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 4 – 9 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 46.8% · hold 4.3%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-105 / -115
Mariners favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jorge Polanco homers (20) on a line drive to left field. Mitch Garver scores. (inning 2) — +21% Mariners
9Luis Arraez grounds out, second baseman Jorge Polanco to first baseman Josh Naylor. Will Wagner scores. Fernando Tatis Jr. to 3rd.6–9
7Ramón Laureano homers (20) on a fly ball to left field.5–9
5J.P. Crawford singles on a fly ball to center fielder Ramón Laureano, deflected by right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Mitch Garver scores. Jorge Polanco scores.4–9
5Jorge Polanco doubles (16) on a ground ball to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. Eugenio Suárez scores. Josh Naylor scores. Mitch Garver to 3rd.4–7
5Josh Naylor singles on a ground ball to left fielder Gavin Sheets. Julio Rodríguez scores. Eugenio Suárez to 2nd.4–5
4J.P. Crawford grounds into a double play, second baseman Jake Cronenworth to shortstop Xander Bogaerts to first baseman Luis Arraez. Josh Naylor scores. Mitch Garver to 3rd. Jorge Polanco out at 2nd. J.P. Crawford out at 1st.4–4
2Jorge Polanco homers (20) on a line drive to left field. Mitch Garver scores.4–3
2Fernando Tatis Jr. homers (18) on a fly ball to center field. Freddy Fermin scores.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.