Red Sox at Orioles
Last play · Ryan Mountcastle strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Orioles0%
BOS 100%BAL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 0 BAL
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / +100
Orioles favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Trevor Story homers (21) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 2) — -20% Red Sox
9David Hamilton doubles (4) on a fly ball to left fielder Dylan Beavers. Nathaniel Lowe scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores.5–0
8Carlos Narváez reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by pitcher Yaramil Hiraldo. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Carlos Narváez out at 2nd, catcher Alex Jackson to shortstop Gunnar Henderson.3–0
3David Hamilton homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.2–0
2Trevor Story homers (21) on a fly ball to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
