Rays at Guardians
Last play · Kyle Manzardo singles on a line drive to center fielder Everson Pereira. Angel Martínez scores. Steven Kwan to 3rd.
Win probability
Guardians100%
TB 0%CLE 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 2 CLE
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-155 / +130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Guardians favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Jones homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. (inning 9) — +42% Guardians
10Kyle Manzardo singles on a line drive to center fielder Everson Pereira. Angel Martínez scores. Steven Kwan to 3rd.3–4
9Nolan Jones homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field.3–3
5Steven Kwan singles on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Will Wilson scores.3–2
3Brandon Lowe homers (26) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores.3–1
2Will Wilson singles on a soft bunt ground ball to first baseman Yandy Díaz. Gabriel Arias scores. Nolan Jones to 2nd.1–1
2Everson Pereira singles on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Josh Lowe scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
