Padres at Mariners
Last play · Julio Rodríguez lines out sharply to right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr.
Win probability
Mariners0%
SD 100%SEA 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSD 5 – 6 SEA
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 50% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+130 / -155
Mariners favored ↑50%Padres favored ↓
Biggest swing · Eugenio Suárez homers (41) on a fly ball to left field. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez scores. (inning 5) — +45% Mariners
6Freddy Fermin out on a sacrifice bunt, pitcher Caleb Ferguson to second baseman Cole Young. Ramón Laureano scores. Jake Cronenworth to 2nd.7–6
6Jake Cronenworth singles on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Gavin Sheets scores. Ramón Laureano to 3rd.6–6
5Eugenio Suárez homers (41) on a fly ball to left field. Cal Raleigh scores. Julio Rodríguez scores.5–6
5Randy Arozarena homers (25) on a fly ball to left field. J.P. Crawford scores. Cole Young scores.5–3
1Ramón Laureano hits a grand slam (21) to left center field. Ryan O'Hearn scores. Xander Bogaerts scores. Gavin Sheets scores.5–0
1Xander Bogaerts singles on a line drive to left fielder Randy Arozarena. Fernando Tatis Jr. scores. Ryan O'Hearn to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
