Rays at Nationals
Last play · Riley Adams strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Nationals0%
TB 100%WSH 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 1 WSH
Rays led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 44.7% · hold 4%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-150 / +125
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Nationals favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brandon Lowe homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores. (inning 1) — -21% Rays
9Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to left fielder James Wood. Everson Pereira scores. Nick Fortes to 2nd.4–1
5Everson Pereira homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.3–1
1Luis García Jr. out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Josh Lowe. James Wood scores. CJ Abrams to 3rd.2–1
1Brandon Lowe homers (27) on a fly ball to right center field. Yandy Díaz scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
