Pirates at Red Sox
Last play · Alex Bregman pops out to first baseman Spencer Horwitz.
Win probability
Red Sox0%
PIT 100%BOS 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPIT 4 – 2 BOS
Pirates led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 55.3% · hold 4%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+150 / -180
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Red Sox favored ↑50%Pirates favored ↓
Biggest swing · Bryan Reynolds singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Roman Anthony. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Jared Triolo scores. Spencer Horwitz to 3rd. (inning 5) — -31% Pirates
9Oneil Cruz grounds out, second baseman David Hamilton to first baseman Romy Gonzalez.10–3
6Romy Gonzalez singles on a line drive to right fielder Bryan Reynolds. Trevor Story scores. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd.9–3
6Nick Gonzales singles on a ground ball to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Spencer Horwitz scores. Bryan Reynolds scores. Tommy Pham to 3rd.9–2
6Spencer Horwitz singles on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Joey Bart scores. Jared Triolo scores. Spencer Horwitz to 2nd. Throwing error by center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.7–2
6Oneil Cruz homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.5–2
5Tommy Pham singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Spencer Horwitz scores. Bryan Reynolds to 2nd.4–2
5Bryan Reynolds singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Roman Anthony. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Jared Triolo scores. Spencer Horwitz to 3rd.3–2
4Romy Gonzalez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Oneil Cruz. Trevor Story scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
